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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

They’ll Tear Themselves Apart

They'll Tear Themselves Apart

Minnesota Representative Michelle Bachman won this week’s Iowa Straw Poll, a moral victory that could launch her bid to the Republican nomination.  However, two major candidates stand in her way.  Former Utah governor Mitt Romney and current Texas Governor Rick Perry. 

However, for any candidate to secure the GOP nomination, they need to appeal to a majority of the Republicans.  There are a few major groups that make up the Republican Party nationally.  These include social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, moderates, libertarians, Evangelicals, and the Tea Party.  These three candidates need to find their unique niche among the field to gain an advantage. 
Romney has played to the center early on in his campaign.  He is trying to gain the moderates as his largest supporters.  He also plays on fiscal conservatives with his CEO background.  The former governor has not, and will not, try and gain far right voters from his competition.
This is where the other two contenders will fight and scratch to gain every last vote.  Michelle Bachman and Rick Perry both claim to be ultra religious, social and fiscal conservatives, and Tea Party leaders.  They both have Evangelical supporters as well.
This will be Perry and Bachman’s downfall. They have to fight for the same voters.  In a head on head battle, each will have their dirty laundry waived in public, and it will turn ugly.  If Sarah Palin enters the race, this mess will only deepen.  The fight will drag on, especially when each candidate has deep pockets and loyal supporters.
The only thing Romney has to do is sit back, win a few primaries, and not make a major mistake.

So I will call it now.  Without a major meltdown by Romney or a dropout by all of the conservative candidates, Mitt Romney will be the Republicans 2012 Presidential nominee.

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